Geopolitical risk
Caldara and Iacoviello's Geopolitical Risk index counts newspaper articles about wars, terror and military threats. 100 is the 1985–2019 average.
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Caldara and Iacoviello's Geopolitical Risk index counts newspaper articles about wars, terror and military threats. 100 is the 1985–2019 average.
Caldara and Iacoviello's Geopolitical Risk index counts newspaper articles about wars, terror and military threats. 100 is the 1985–2019 average.
| Measure | Latest | Period before | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
Daily indexShare of that day's articles | 113.9 | 86.3 | 2 Nov 2026 |
7-day averageThe authors' average of the daily index | 158.8 | 170.3 | 2 Nov 2026 |
30-day averageThe authors' average of the daily index | 184.7 | 185.7 | 2 Nov 2026 |
Monthly indexThreats and acts together | 150.5 | 155.9 | Oct 2026 |
ThreatsWar, peace, military, nuclear and terror threats | 156.8 | 181.3 | Oct 2026 |
ActsBeginning and escalation of war, terror acts | 167.6 | 154.4 | Oct 2026 |
Dashed line: the 1985–2019 average, 100.
Percent of articles that mention each country, by region, highest first.
| Americas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
United States | 3.76% | 3.98% | 3.75% |
Canada | 0.44% | 0.57% | 0.27% |
Brazil | 0.12% | 0.15% | 0.13% |
Mexico | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.29% |
Venezuela | 0.10% | 0.22% | 0.53% |
Argentina | 0.08% | 0.12% | 0.04% |
Colombia | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.29% |
Peru | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.02% |
Chile | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.03% |
| Europe | |||
Russia | 1.72% | 1.55% | 1.51% |
United Kingdom | 1.55% | 1.65% | 1.41% |
Ukraine | 1.50% | 1.17% | 1.21% |
France | 0.74% | 0.72% | 0.57% |
Germany | 0.58% | 0.59% | 0.54% |
Belgium | 0.29% | 0.15% | 0.26% |
Poland | 0.27% | 0.24% | 0.28% |
Norway | 0.23% | 0.13% | 0.18% |
Italy | 0.19% | 0.19% | 0.18% |
Finland | 0.14% | 0.12% | 0.05% |
Netherlands | 0.12% | 0.15% | 0.15% |
Spain | 0.08% | 0.12% | 0.18% |
Sweden | 0.08% | 0.10% | 0.14% |
Switzerland | 0.08% | 0.11% | 0.04% |
Denmark | 0.08% | 0.19% | 0.21% |
Hungary | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.31% |
Portugal | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.02% |
| Middle East and Africa | |||
Israel | 1.27% | 1.61% | 1.49% |
Saudi Arabia | 0.86% | 0.98% | 0.23% |
Turkey | 0.29% | 0.37% | 0.51% |
Egypt | 0.22% | 0.32% | 0.57% |
South Africa | 0.05% | 0.12% | 0.10% |
Tunisia | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.02% |
| Asia and Pacific | |||
China | 0.84% | 1.25% | 0.94% |
India | 0.30% | 0.38% | 0.29% |
Japan | 0.23% | 0.28% | 0.29% |
Australia | 0.17% | 0.12% | 0.21% |
South Korea | 0.15% | 0.32% | 0.33% |
Taiwan | 0.08% | 0.26% | 0.19% |
Indonesia | 0.07% | 0.06% | 0.08% |
Thailand | 0.06% | 0.07% | 0.11% |
Malaysia | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.10% |
Philippines | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.05% |
Vietnam | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.04% |
Hong Kong | 0.03% | 0.13% | 0.12% |