Each economy's latest releases against consensus, and what each surprise means for its currency and its stocks.
Share of releases bullish, neutral ones left out.
USD-priced assets, and USD pairs against the other currency.
Surprise is actual minus consensus; impact is what it means for the currency and stocks.
Each economy's latest releases against consensus, and what each surprise means for its currency and its stocks.
Share of releases bullish, neutral ones left out.
USD-priced assets, and USD pairs against the other currency.
Surprise is actual minus consensus; impact is what it means for the currency and stocks.
| Indicator | Period | Released | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | USD | Stocks | History |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||||||
| GDPq/q annualised | Q3 | 29 Oct, 12:30 | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | +0.2%, consensus beat | Bullish | Bullish | Last 2 releases, oldest first: Q2 2026 2.2%, Q3 2026 3.4% |
| Manufacturing PMI | Oct | 2 Nov, 15:00 | 55.5 | 54.5 | 54.5 | +1.0, consensus beat | Bullish | Bullish | Last 4 releases, oldest first: Jul 2026 55.6, Aug 2026 54.6, Sept 2026 54.5, Oct 2026 55.5 |
| Services PMI | Oct | 4 Nov, 15:00 | 54.5 | 54.8 | 54.9 | −0.3, consensus missed | Bearish | Bearish | Last 4 releases, oldest first: Jul 2026 54.1, Aug 2026 55.4, Sept 2026 54.9, Oct 2026 54.5 |
| Retail salesm/m | Sept | 15 Oct, 12:30 | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.3% | +0.5%, consensus beat | Bullish | Bullish | Last 4 releases, oldest first: Jun 2026 0.2%, Jul 2026 −0.6%, Aug 2026 1.2%, Sept 2026 0.8% |
| Consumer confidence | Oct | 27 Oct, 14:00 | 91.7 | 81.2 | 84.2 | +10.5, consensus beat | Bullish | Bullish | Last 4 releases, oldest first: Jul 2026 90.8, Aug 2026 89.4, Sept 2026 81.9, Oct 2026 91.7 |
| Inflation | |||||||||
| CPIy/y | Sept | 14 Oct, 12:30 | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | +0.1%, consensus beat | Bullish | Bearish | Last 4 releases, oldest first: Jun 2026 3.5%, Jul 2026 3.4%, Aug 2026 3.4%, Sept 2026 3.7% |
| PPIy/y | Sept | 15 Oct, 12:30 | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | +1.0%, consensus beat | Bullish | Bearish | Last 4 releases, oldest first: Jun 2026 5.5%, Jul 2026 4.7%, Aug 2026 5.4%, Sept 2026 6.3% |
| Core PCEy/y | Sept | 29 Oct, 12:30 | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 0.0%, consensus in line | Neutral | Neutral | Last 4 releases, oldest first: Jun 2026 3.3%, Jul 2026 3.3%, Aug 2026 3.0%, Sept 2026 3.1% |
| Rates | |||||||||
| 2-year yielddaily | 10 Nov | 11 Nov, 03:30 | 4.73% | No value | 4.80% | −7 bp | Bearish | Bullish | |
| Labor | |||||||||
| Nonfarm payrolls | Oct | 6 Nov, 13:30 | 165K | 65K | 60K | +100K, consensus beat | Bullish | Bullish | Last 4 releases, oldest first: Jul 2026 −23K, Aug 2026 162K, Sept 2026 29K, Oct 2026 165K |
| Unemployment rate | Oct | 6 Nov, 13:30 | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | −0.1%, consensus beat | Bullish | Bullish | Last 4 releases, oldest first: Jul 2026 4.1%, Aug 2026 4.1%, Sept 2026 4.2%, Oct 2026 4.1% |
| Jobless claims | 31 Oct | 5 Nov, 13:30 | 189.000K | 197.000K | 195.000K | −8.000K, consensus beat | Bullish | Bullish | Last 6 releases, oldest first: 26 Sept 2026 197.000K, 3 Oct 2026 197.000K, 10 Oct 2026 199.000K, 17 Oct 2026 194.000K, 24 Oct 2026 194.000K, 31 Oct 2026 189.000K |
| ADP employment | Oct | 4 Nov, 13:15 | 86K | 67K | 86K | +19K, consensus beat | Bullish | Bullish | Last 4 releases, oldest first: Jul 2026 44K, Aug 2026 38K, Sept 2026 90K, Oct 2026 86K |
| JOLTS job openings | Sept | 3 Nov, 15:00 | 7.523M | 7.150M | 7.190M | +0.373M, consensus beat | Bullish | Bullish | Last 4 releases, oldest first: Jun 2026 7.359M, Jul 2026 7.271M, Aug 2026 7.079M, Sept 2026 7.523M |
USD-priced assets, and USD pairs against the other currency.