Economic data · Interest rates
Rate projections
Each central bank's own rate projection, kept apart from the path market prices imply.
Economic data · Interest rates
Each central bank's own rate projection, kept apart from the path market prices imply.
Economic data · Interest rates
Each central bank's own rate projection, kept apart from the path market prices imply.
Each bank's own projection beside the path market prices imply.
| Central bank | Rate in force | Own projection | Market pricing |
|---|---|---|---|
United StatesFederal Reserve | 4.00% | 4.1% end 2026SEP median | 4.075% Dec 2026 |
Euro areaEuropean Central Bank | 2.50% | Not published | No value |
United KingdomBank of England | 4.00% | Not published | No value |
JapanBank of Japan | 1.25% | Not published | No value |
CanadaBank of Canada | 2.50% | Not published | No value |
AustraliaReserve Bank of Australia | 4.85% | Not published | No value |
New ZealandReserve Bank of New Zealand | 2.75% | Published in each Monetary Policy Statement; not readable yet | No value |
SwitzerlandSwiss National Bank | 0.00% | Not published | No value |
ChinaPeople's Bank of China | No single policy rate in our data | Not published | No value |
Target range in force 3.75% to 4.00%, set 28 Oct 2026; midpoint 3.875%. Fed funds futures, implied averageFOMC median, year endTarget range in force
Summary of Economic Projections of 16 Sept 2026. Midpoint of each participant's target range at year end.
| Year end | Median | Central tendency | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
2026 | 4.1% | 4.1% to 4.4% | 3.9% to 4.4% |
2027 | 4.1% | 3.6% to 4.4% | 3.1% to 4.4% |
2028 | 3.9% | 3.1% to 4.1% | 3.1% to 4.1% |
2029 | 3.6% | 3.1% to 3.6% | 2.9% to 3.9% |
Longer run | 3.2% | 3.0% to 3.6% | 2.9% to 3.9% |
Average effective rate each month implied by 30-day futures prices.
| Month | Implied rate | Vs midpoint | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
Dec 2026ZQZ26 | 4.075% | +20 bp | 95.925 |
Jan 2027ZQF27 | 4.175% | +30 bp | 95.825 |
Feb 2027ZQG27 | 4.315% | +44 bp | 95.685 |
Mar 2027ZQH27 | 4.385% | +51 bp | 95.615 |
Apr 2027ZQJ27 | 4.475% | +60 bp | 95.525 |
May 2027ZQK27 | 4.530% | +66 bp | 95.470 |
Jun 2027ZQM27 | 4.590% | +72 bp | 95.410 |
Jul 2027ZQN27 | 4.615% | +74 bp | 95.385 |
Aug 2027ZQQ27 | 4.635% | +76 bp | 95.365 |
Sept 2027ZQU27 | 4.645% | +77 bp | 95.355 |
Oct 2027ZQV27 | 4.650% | +78 bp | 95.350 |
Nov 2027ZQX27 | 4.640% | +77 bp | 95.360 |
Dec 2027ZQZ27 | 4.615% | +74 bp | 95.385 |
Jan 2028ZQF28 | 4.600% | +73 bp | 95.400 |
Feb 2028ZQG28 | 4.620% | +75 bp | 95.380 |