The score, and every factor behind it with its own verdict.
−7
Bearish
| Technical | Bearish | −1 |
|---|---|---|
| Positioning | Bullish | +3 |
| Macro | Bearish | −9 |
Daily close only. Below, the daily total score as stored after each session; a gap is a day with no stored score. ▲ and ▼ mark a day the bias moved to a higher or lower band.
GBP surprise 60%, 3 of 5 beat, 1 in lineUSD surprise 92%, 11 of 12 beat, 1 in lineSurprise index
| Factor and bias | GBP | USD | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical | Bearish | Reading | Released | Next | |||||||
| Trend, daily | Bearish | SMA3 below SMA14, falling | 11 Nov | Daily | |||||||
| Seasonality | Bullish | November average +1.04% | Nov | 1 Dec | |||||||
| Positioning | Bullish | Long | Short | Week Δ | Released | Next | Long | Short | Week Δ | Released | Next |
| COT, weekly change | Bullish | 34.0% | 66.0% | +4.64 | 6 Nov | 16 Nov | 63.7% | 36.3% | −0.93 | 6 Nov | 16 Nov |
| Crowd, retail | Bullish | 27% long, 73% short | 12 Nov | Hourly | |||||||
| Growth | Bearish | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Released | Next | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Released | Next |
| Bearish | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 12 Nov | No value | 3.4% | 3.2% | +0.2% | 29 Oct | 25 Nov | |
| Unavailable | Unavailable | No value | 23 Nov | 55.5 | 54.5 | +1.0 | 2 Nov | 1 Dec | |||
| Unavailable | Unavailable | No value | 23 Nov | 54.5 | 54.8 | −0.3 | 4 Nov | 3 Dec | |||
| Bearish | −0.4% | −0.1% | −0.3% | 23 Oct | 20 Nov | 0.8% | 0.3% | +0.5% | 15 Oct | 17 Nov | |
| Bearish | −24 | −15 | −9 | 22 Oct | 20 Nov | 91.7 | 81.2 | +10.5 | 27 Oct | 24 Nov | |
| Inflation and rates | Neutral | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Released | Next | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Released | Next |
| Neutral | 3.5% | 3.4% | +0.1% | 21 Oct | 18 Nov | 3.7% | 3.6% | +0.1% | 14 Oct | 10 Dec | |
| Neutral | 4.6% | 4.3% | +0.3% | 21 Oct | 18 Nov | 6.3% | 5.3% | +1.0% | 15 Oct | 13 Nov | |
| Neutral | Not applicable | No value | No value | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 29 Oct | 25 Nov | |||
| 2-year yield trend | Neutral | 4.71%, falling (dovish) | 11 Nov | Daily | 4.73%, falling (dovish) | 10 Nov | Daily | ||||
| Jobs | Bearish | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Released | Next | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Released | Next |
| Bearish | Not applicable | No value | No value | 165K | 65K | +100K | 6 Nov | 4 Dec | |||
| Neutral | 4.7% | 4.9% | −0.2% | 20 Oct | 17 Nov | 4.1% | 4.2% | −0.1% | 6 Nov | 4 Dec | |
| Bearish | Not applicable | No value | No value | 189K | 197K | −8K | 5 Nov | Today | |||
| Bearish | Not applicable | No value | No value | 86K | 67K | +19K | 4 Nov | 2 Dec | |||
| Bearish | Not applicable | No value | No value | 7.523M | 7.150M | +0.373M | 3 Nov | 1 Dec | |||
−59,821Contracts net short, +19,593 this week
+14,190Contracts net long, +69 this week
Crowd score +1
14 Jul 2026 to 12 Nov 2026. GBP 60% now, 3 of 5 beat, 1 in line; USD 92% now, 11 of 12 beat, 1 in line. Lines differ by shade and dash; pick a currency to show or hide its line.
Share of each economy's latest releases that beat consensus in the currency's favour; the dashed line marks 50%.