The score, and every factor behind it with its own verdict.
−14
Strong bearish
| Technical | Bearish | −1 |
|---|---|---|
| Positioning | Bearish | −1 |
| Macro | Bearish | −12 |
Daily close only. Below, the daily total score as stored after each session; a gap is a day with no stored score. ▲ and ▼ mark a day the bias moved to a higher or lower band.
NZD surprise 40%, 2 of 5 beatUSD surprise 92%, 11 of 12 beat, 1 in lineSurprise index
| Factor and bias | NZD | USD | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical | Bearish | Reading | Released | Next | |||||||
| Trend, daily | Bearish | SMA3 below SMA14, falling | 11 Nov | Daily | |||||||
| Seasonality | Bullish | November average +1.78% | Nov | 1 Dec | |||||||
| Positioning | Bearish | Long | Short | Week Δ | Released | Next | Long | Short | Week Δ | Released | Next |
| COT, weekly change | Neutral | 19.0% | 81.0% | −0.20 | 6 Nov | 16 Nov | 63.7% | 36.3% | −0.93 | 6 Nov | 16 Nov |
| Crowd, retail | Bearish | 75% long, 25% short | 12 Nov | Hourly | |||||||
| Growth | Bearish | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Released | Next | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Released | Next |
| Neutral | 0.2% | 0.1% | +0.1% | 16 Sept | No value | 3.4% | 3.2% | +0.2% | 29 Oct | 25 Nov | |
| Unavailable | 56.5 | — | — | No value | Today | 55.5 | 54.5 | +1.0 | 2 Nov | 1 Dec | |
| Unavailable | 50.9 | — | — | No value | 15 Nov | 54.5 | 54.8 | −0.3 | 4 Nov | 3 Dec | |
| Bearish | −0.5% | 0.1% | −0.6% | 23 Aug | 22 Nov | 0.8% | 0.3% | +0.5% | 15 Oct | 17 Nov | |
| Unavailable | 89.5 | — | — | No value | No value | 91.7 | 81.2 | +10.5 | 27 Oct | 24 Nov | |
| Inflation and rates | Bearish | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Released | Next | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Released | Next |
| Bearish | 0.7% | 0.8% | −0.1% | 21 Oct | No value | 3.7% | 3.6% | +0.1% | 14 Oct | 10 Dec | |
| Neutral | 1.6% | 0.8% | +0.8% | 18 Aug | 18 Nov | 6.3% | 5.3% | +1.0% | 15 Oct | 13 Nov | |
| Neutral | Not applicable | No value | No value | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 29 Oct | 25 Nov | |||
| 2-year yield trend | Unavailable | No free daily 2-year yield | No value | No value | 4.73%, falling (dovish) | 10 Nov | Daily | ||||
| Jobs | Bearish | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Released | Next | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Released | Next |
| Bearish | Not applicable | No value | No value | 165K | 65K | +100K | 6 Nov | 4 Dec | |||
| Bearish | 5.7% | 5.5% | +0.2% | 3 Nov | No value | 4.1% | 4.2% | −0.1% | 6 Nov | 4 Dec | |
| Bearish | Not applicable | No value | No value | 189K | 197K | −8K | 5 Nov | Today | |||
| Bearish | Not applicable | No value | No value | 86K | 67K | +19K | 4 Nov | 2 Dec | |||
| Bearish | Not applicable | No value | No value | 7.523M | 7.150M | +0.373M | 3 Nov | 1 Dec | |||
−60,015Contracts net short, −2,325 this week
+14,190Contracts net long, +69 this week
Crowd score −1
14 Jul 2026 to 12 Nov 2026. NZD 40% now, 2 of 5 beat; USD 92% now, 11 of 12 beat, 1 in line. Lines differ by shade and dash; pick a currency to show or hide its line.
Share of each economy's latest releases that beat consensus in the currency's favour; the dashed line marks 50%.