The score, and every factor behind it with its own verdict.
+11
Strong bullish
| Technical | Bullish | +1 |
|---|---|---|
| Positioning | Bullish | +1 |
| Macro | Bullish | +9 |
Daily close only. Below, the daily total score as stored after each session; a gap is a day with no stored score. ▲ and ▼ mark a day the bias moved to a higher or lower band.
USD surprise 92%, 11 of 12 beat, 1 in lineJPY surprise 50%, 2 of 4 beat, 1 in lineSurprise index
| Factor and bias | USD | JPY | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical | Bullish | Reading | Released | Next | |||||||
| Trend, daily | Bullish | SMA3 above SMA14, rising | 11 Nov | Daily | |||||||
| Seasonality | Bearish | November average −0.21% | Nov | 1 Dec | |||||||
| Positioning | Bullish | Long | Short | Week Δ | Released | Next | Long | Short | Week Δ | Released | Next |
| COT, weekly change | Neutral | 63.7% | 36.3% | −0.93 | 6 Nov | 16 Nov | 64.5% | 35.5% | −0.01 | 6 Nov | 16 Nov |
| Crowd, retail | Bullish | 28% long, 72% short | 12 Nov | Hourly | |||||||
| Growth | Bullish | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Released | Next | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Released | Next |
| Bullish | 3.4% | 3.2% | +0.2% | 29 Oct | 25 Nov | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 7 Sept | 15 Nov | |
| Unavailable | 55.5 | 54.5 | +1.0 | 2 Nov | 1 Dec | Unavailable | No value | 24 Nov | |||
| Unavailable | 54.5 | 54.8 | −0.3 | 4 Nov | 3 Dec | Unavailable | No value | No value | |||
| Bullish | 0.8% | 0.3% | +0.5% | 15 Oct | 17 Nov | 2.3% | 3.3% | −1.0% | 29 Oct | 29 Nov | |
| Bullish | 91.7 | 81.2 | +10.5 | 27 Oct | 24 Nov | 35.0 | 35.1 | −0.1 | 29 Oct | 2 Dec | |
| Inflation and rates | Neutral | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Released | Next | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Released | Next |
| Unavailable | 3.7% | 3.6% | +0.1% | 14 Oct | 10 Dec | Unavailable | No value | No value | |||
| Neutral | 6.3% | 5.3% | +1.0% | 15 Oct | 13 Nov | 7.1% | 6.5% | +0.6% | 11 Nov | 9 Dec | |
| Neutral | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 29 Oct | 25 Nov | Not applicable | No value | No value | |||
| 2-year yield trend | Neutral | 4.73%, falling (dovish) | 10 Nov | Daily | 1.86%, falling (dovish) | 11 Nov | Daily | ||||
| Jobs | Bullish | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Released | Next | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Released | Next |
| Bullish | 165K | 65K | +100K | 6 Nov | 4 Dec | Not applicable | No value | No value | |||
| Neutral | 4.1% | 4.2% | −0.1% | 6 Nov | 4 Dec | 2.4% | 2.5% | −0.1% | 29 Oct | 30 Nov | |
| Bullish | 189K | 197K | −8K | 5 Nov | Today | Not applicable | No value | No value | |||
| Bullish | 86K | 67K | +19K | 4 Nov | 2 Dec | Not applicable | No value | No value | |||
| Bullish | 7.523M | 7.150M | +0.373M | 3 Nov | 1 Dec | Not applicable | No value | No value | |||
+14,190Contracts net long, +69 this week
+102,321Contracts net long, +730 this week
Crowd score +1
14 Jul 2026 to 12 Nov 2026. USD 92% now, 11 of 12 beat, 1 in line; JPY 50% now, 2 of 4 beat, 1 in line. Lines differ by shade and dash; pick a currency to show or hide its line.
Share of each economy's latest releases that beat consensus in the currency's favour; the dashed line marks 50%.